The global disposable diaper market is currently witnessing core trends including distinct regional differentiation, a surge in the adult care segment, dual-driven growth of high-end and eco-friendly products, and further digitalization of sales channels. The global market size is projected to reach 70-75 billion US dollars in 2025-2026, with adult incontinence products emerging as the primary growth driver. There are significant disparities in demand structures between emerging and mature markets. An in-depth multi-dimensional analysis is presented below:
I. Market Size and Growth Dynamics
Overall Scale and Growth Rate
As of 2025, the global disposable diaper market has exceeded 70 billion US dollars and is expected to hit approximately 75 billion US dollars in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3%-4% from 2025 to 2030. The growth of baby diapers has stabilized at 3%-4%, while adult incontinence products have become the core growth engine with a CAGR of over 8%, contributing more than 65% to the global market's incremental growth.
Structural Changes in Product Categories
Baby diapers still dominate the market, yet the demand for adult diapers has surged amid the accelerating global aging trend, with their market share projected to rise above 22% in 2025. The global adult diaper market is expected to reach 231.344 billion RMB from 2025 to 2032, registering a CAGR of 8.85%.
II. Consumer Demand and Product Innovation Trends
Upgrading towards High-end and Functionalization
Parents prefer high-end baby diapers featuring ultra-thin breathability, high absorbency, skin-care ingredients (e.g., vitamin E, aloe vera) and leak-proof design, with smart humidity-sensing products gradually entering pilot application. Adult diapers are evolving towards high absorbency, skin-friendliness and scenario segmentation (e.g., travel, post-operative care).
Eco-friendliness Becoming the Mainstream
Consumer preference for biodegradable, plant-based and organic diapers is on the rise. The penetration rate of eco-certified products is projected to jump from 18% in 2025 to over 25% in 2026. Some enterprises have achieved a sustainable material utilization rate of more than 30%, and industry patent applications are focused on biodegradable materials.
Obvious Consumption Stratification
In mature markets, both high-end and cost-effective products enjoy strong sales, with private labels gaining increased attention for their high cost performance. Emerging markets are dominated by cost-effective products, while gradually embracing mid-to-high-end offerings.
III. Evolution of Sales Channels and Competitive Landscape
E-commerce Dominating Sales Channels
Online sales account for over 50% of the total revenue, and cross-border e-commerce has become a crucial path for Chinese enterprises to expand overseas. In the first half of 2025, China's export value of baby diapers reached 1.012 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%, with Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries as the major target markets. Platforms such as Shopee and TikTok in Southeast Asia, as well as Wildberries and Ozon in Russia, have become the main sales channels, and the subscription delivery model is popular in regions like Singapore.
Reshaping of the Competitive Landscape
International leading brands and local brands hold more than half of the market share, with 45% split among niche brands. Chinese brands are rising rapidly in emerging markets, with some domestic brands capturing over 20% of the market share in Africa. Japanese brands are facing operational pressures in some markets and adjusting their layout accordingly.
Localization of Supply Chains
Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia are promoting the localization of production capacity, which is expected to reach 60% in 2025, helping to reduce costs and respond to market demand rapidly.
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